Some Random Political Quick Hits

Too tired to offer up any real substantive content this morning.  So, instead, you get something akin to my own cynical version of Political Cornflakes. :)

John Swallow’s getting away with it.

Wake up Utah GOP.  This guy’s not leaving of his own accord.  You wait for the official results of investigations at your peril.  I hope you’re all still quietly working behind the scenes and haven’t just decided to let the guy finish out his term and lose at convention.  Because that would just be sad.

Caucus system and Mike Lee.

Paul Rolly put out an article today on how Mike Lee is the compelling reason to change Utah’s candidate nominating system.  I’m far from a raving fan of either one.  As to my views on the caucus system, just ask Dan Burton at PubliusOnline — we’ve gone the rounds on this one more than once.  Mike Lee?  Well, he’s been in office almost 3 years now, and what’s he done?  Come on, think of something . . . I dare you.

I’d like to replace Mike Lee.  And I’d like to change the caucus system.  But it’s never a good idea to change a system in response to an electoral result.  In 2012, Tea Partiers learned, much to their distress, that they were not the only ones with power to game the caucus system.  Whatever changes we make to the ways candidates are chosen in Utah should be about voter participation and engagement, not about results.

Tired of the crazy legislature meme.

Our legislature is conservative.  Really conservative.  But count me as one who’s getting tired of hearing that they’re all “bat-s***” crazy.  In fact, if you put aside the constitutional carry bill (HB76, or whatever the number was), this year’s legislature was pretty darn moderate . . . especially by recent standards.  Over and over I hear Utah’s liberals trotting out example after example of legislation that went nowhere as proof of how nutso our representatives are.  Sorry, I just don’t see it right now.  I’ve been as willing as anyone to call out what I see as silly in our elected representatives.  And I haven’t seen much of it lately.  While there’s more I’d like to see them do, of course, our current legislators are, on the whole, doing a fine job.

Obamacare.

Well, we’re coming down to it now.  Or are we?  Will it be fully implemented in 2014?  And what will it do?  Aside from turning the USA into Russia/fulfilling the promises of liberty and justice for all nobody really seems to know.  Though we are all positive that Obamacare will “eliminate pre-existing conditions” . . . which is political-speak for “prevent insurance companies from denying coverage based on pre-existing conditions.”

I think there will be a lot of buyers remorse on Obamacare, which, from what we can tell, seems to be terribly designed and shabbily implemented.  Unfortunately, the GOP has yet to articulate an alternative vision, so it appears we’ll twist in the wind for a time before beginning the debate over full national health.  Ughh.

At least the Obamacare preparation consultants will have their moment in the sun prolonged . . . .

Supreme Court.

There’s lots of cool, important stuff going on up there right now.  And very little intelligent commentary about it.  More to come.  Whether what comes is intelligent or not, well, that’s obviously up to you to decide.

John Swallow . . . Quietly Still There . . .

It’s been over a month now since the Salt Lake Tribune broke the story about John Swallow and Jeremy Johnson.

In the interim we’ve seen more news — all of it bad — including today’s most recent headline: “Swallow suggested cash in exchange for protection, sources say.”  And don’t forget when we learned earlier this week that Mr. Swallow’s own boss (whether motivated by legacy preservation or other concerns) reported Swallow to the FBI (prior to the election, mind you — and then continued to campaign for him to the bitter end).

There have been media demands for resignation and talk about FBI Investigations, ethics reform, and even some whispers about impeachment . . . and yet there John Swallow quietly sits, huddled in the Attorney General’s office, sending out politically hackish emails (e.g., “Fighting for Traditional Families”), crossing his fingers while anxiously awaiting the outcome of an investigation over illegality.  One may be reasonably certain that Mr. Swallow will (likely through a spokesman) indignantly claim vindication if the investigation ends in anything other than a decision to bring charges.

There are still a few voices out there counseling for us to “wait for the facts to come out,” because, after all, this whole thing may be shoddy political takedown manufactured by Jeremy Johnson or those liberals at the Salt Lake Tribune.

That’s not surprising in politics and not too concerning since they’re really not making much noise.

More surprising and concerning than Swallow’s few, quiet defenders, is the utter absence of noise from our elected officials and the public at large.  Our representatives appear to be whispering in the background, waiting for the smoking gun that will allow them to step out from behind the curtain and demand resignation.  They’re being careful — and such cautious care is often, after all, the successful politician’s stock in trade (and not a quality to be scoffed at).

But, right now, these folks are John Swallow’s best friends.

There is being prudently cautious and there is refusing to act because you want to be bailed out.  It appears to me that we have the latter here in Utah when it comes to Mr. Swallow.

We know all we need to know about John Swallow’s lack of judgment and utter lack of credibility to serve as Utah’s chief law enforcement officer.  Right now the only thing that is being gained by continuing to wait and whisper is an increased likelihood that Mr. Swallow, despite having lost all public confidence as this state’s top law enforcement officer, will finish his term in office.

Because let me tell you how I think this ends, if people wait to act until after the conclusion of the federal investigation.  There’s a good chance that the investigation ends with a decision not to bring charges (whether out of a conviction that there was no technical violation or law or just out of a lack of evidence), thus doing nothing more than confirming what we already know — Mr. Swallow has questionable ethics or extraordinarily poor judgment.  At that point, Mr. Swallow claims victory, and I see it highly unlikely that he is impeached after being “cleared” or that political will to force a resignation will suddenly materialize in the aftermath of a “favorable” result.

That would be a tragedy — a stain on the state of Utah and the good work done by our Attorney General’s Office.  And therein lies the danger of continuing to wait, hoping for the smoking gun of illegal conduct (which many will argue we already have).

John Swallow’s hoping this is just how things play out, so that he can finish his term, maybe get a signature “win,” and emerge with favorable record that will make everyone forget all about his messy past.

Because Mr. Swallow is firmly convinced (or at least thinks it’s a good bet) that we’re all just fine with a few shenanigans so long as the federal government doesn’t arrest him on national TV, criminals continue to get convicted, and we fight the good fight at the Supreme Court.

Thus far, Mr. Swallow has been immune to public pressure, confident in the fact that he won’t be charged and people will forget all about this as soon as the Tribune runs out of stories to print.

Seems to me like we need to ratchet up the pressure . . . .

What Does the John Swallow Debacle Say About Utah?

Since the Salt Lake Tribune broke the story about John Swallow’s troubling connections to disgraced philanthropist Jeremy Johnson last Saturday, calls for Swallow’s resignation have trickled in.  Over the last 24 hours, that trickle has become more of a flood.  It seems like everyone agrees that Swallow’s got to go.

I commented after my initial post that I didn’t think this would take him down, unless it got more messy (which it has).  Well, now we’ve got other federal investigative targets associated with Swallow and a deathbed affidavit that appears to have been prepared in a panic and has done nothing but make the scandal worse.  The whole thing stinks of an amateur hour attempt at Chicago-style pay to play politics.

I’m revising my opinion.  Swallow’s done.  The sooner he realizes it the better for all concerned.  There are plenty of attorneys in Utah (and within the AG’s office) who would do a fine job as Attorney General.  Let’s get one of them in and move forward.

But while we should all be happy that we’re about to be rid of John Swallow (provided we keep the pressure on), we should also be quite concerned.

Utahns — and especially our state delegates — really need to ask themselves . . . how in the world did this guy get elected?  Because it’s not as if any of this should have taken us by surprise.

Daniel Burton of PubliusOnline, put up an excellent post this morning summarizing John Swallow’s political career in headlines — none of which were positive.  The only news the average Utahn had about John Swallow was about sketchy campaign tactics, a history of inappropriate lobbying procedures, and exaggeration regarding his legal abilities.

The information was front and center for everyone to see.

And plenty of people saw it, believe me.

Most of my Republican political associates saw it.  My attorney friends saw it.  In fact, every attorney I know opposed John Swallow for AG — regardless of whether they supported Dee Smith (the Democratic candidate) or Sean Reyes (the primary opponent).  Folks, it was really almost that universal among the man’s peers!

I opposed him repeatedly.  So did many, many others I know.  Swallow’s primary opponent, Sean Reyes, raised concerns in an official complaint (which was covered in the press) and got ridiculed for playing dirty — oh the irony!

But maybe we didn’t speak up loud enough, because the man nearly skated through convention as the GOP choice without a primary in a system that’s designed to be an equalizer for qualified candidates without money or name recognition.

Maybe people just don’t care about the race for attorney general when they’ve got a Presidential election and race for U.S. Senator.

But regardless of whether the position of Attorney General is as politically sexy as Governor or Senator, a man with John Swallow’s track record should not have gotten elected.  It’s a black eye for the state and undermines the good work done by the attorneys at the AG’s office — even the good work (and I’m sure there was some) done by Swallow himself as a Deputy AG.

I know many of liberal friends are talking this week about dominant party democracy and LDS political hegemony.

But I think we all just need to talk about law enforcement, ethics in politics, and out state’s very troubling refusal to engage with these issues on any adequate basis.  Because, people, if we (and I’m speaking broadly here) can’t even do our homework on a guy with issues as obvious as John Swallow’s, then situations like this are going to be the predictable end result.

What does this debacle say about Utah?  It says we’re too complacent when it comes to demanding transparency and upright conduct in our political leaders . . . even though we talk about it an awful lot.

We need to do two things.

First, we have a legislative session coming up, and we need to demand action from our legislature to put in place safeguards designed to reduce the likelihood that this happens again.  Second, and more importantly, we need to hold ourselves and our our neighborhood representatives accountable.  If you had a state delegate who voted for John Swallow you need to ask them why, and if you can’t get a satisfactory answer, well, then, you know what to do . . . .

Lets keep on this one.

 

 

Brief Thoughts on John Swallow, the Tribune Article, and the Attorney General

Robert Gehrke, Utah’s best political reporter (IMHO), broke a story this morning that will have Utah politicos talking and arguing for a while:  Indicted Businessman Ties Swallow to Alleged Scheme.

The story contains allegations from indicted Utah businessman/philanthropist Jeremy Johnson that John Swallow, recently elected as Attorney General, worked with Johnson to help him try to bribe Harry Reid (through a third-party lobbying firm) in an attempt to stop an FTC investigation into Johnson’s business interests.

As you work your way through the article, the names of Utah’s legal-political elite appear everywhere, and no one comes away unscathed — with the exception, perhaps, of Dee Smith, the Democratic Candidate for Attorney General, who appears to have been brought (at least partially) up to speed on this in the days before the election and, despite obvious political self-interest, showed remarkable restraint by uttering nary a word (at least publicly).

The article reads a bit like a tragic comedy, with the characters working frantically on what seems to be an entirely quixotic effort to stall an FTC investigation by influencing a United States Senator who likely didn’t know that most these individuals existed until the Tribune’s story was published this morning.  The players come off as inept and naive, sincerely uncertain about just what it is that they’re doing, or have done, and its legal consequences.

People who follow this blog, or follow me on Twitter or Facebook, know that I actively (well, as actively as a blogger does) opposed John Swallow for Attorney General.  My concern was never about his character as much as his legal competency.  From my — admittedly very limited — interactions with him, he seemed much as he comes off in this article, as a nice, sincere person in over his head — whether with his claim to be “running” the Obamacare lawsuit despite having only the most rudimentary understanding of the legal principles involved or his sloppiness in continuing to lobby on behalf of friends while a Deputy Attorney General.

There may be additional facts that will cast the story in a different light.  We can assuredly expect attempts at character rehabilitation from all the main players, which will muddy the waters further before things start to become more clear.

All this will work itself out in time.

But there is one thing that I think is clear right now:  Utahns need to take more seriously the post of Attorney General and our responsibility to elect this state’s chief law enforcement officer.

Sandy Hook.

I’ve been MIA since the election for a number of reasons, but primarily because work has demanded enough of my time that blogging has to take a back seat.  It’s also been a nice break.

But I, like all of us, was jolted out of my life’s busy holiday reverie by what happened in Newtown on Friday morning.

The tragedy for the parents who lost children, and children who lost mothers, is unspeakable.  For me, anyway, their pain is unimaginable.  Any attempt to comprehend what they must be feeling makes me physically exhausted, terrified, and emotionally wrung out.  The senselessness of it all — the cold-blooded murder of Kindergarten children by someone scarcely older than a child himself — makes it an event that simply can’t be understood.

Like 9/11 and Columbine — the two tragedies with which it most closely compares — the effects of Sandy Hook will reverberate down the years in the form of a shattered sense of security for our us as parents and each of our little ones and, hopefully, the actions taken to try and prevent this from ever happening again.

Already, a great national conversation has begun over gun control, as it always does during these times.  While this is a good thing, it’s not the main thing.

What we’re all talking about is not really the conversation we need to be having.

Rather than asking ourselves about access to guns, we need to be asking ourselves why this keeps happening in America, and, almost, only in America?  And why does the level of violence seem to be escalating?

And these are not, primarily, questions about access to guns.  They are questions about our national soul.

It is the prevalence of bullying?  Is it mental illness?  Is it lack of access to adequate healthcare?  Is it a culture of violence and celebrity?  Some combination of all of the above?  Or something else entirely?

I don’t pretend to know what it is.  But these are the pressing concerns.  These are the real questions we need to answer.  And we need to answer them now — before this happens again.  Because the Columbines, Virginia Techs, and the Sandy Hooks seem perilously close to becoming a self-fulfilling prophesy.

Tragedies like Sandy Hook should never happen.

And though we can never guarantee that this will never happen again, we can, and must, guarantee that we will put our very best efforts to heal the wounds in our national soul.  Questions about spending, debt ceilings, energy independence, climate change, and progressive taxation fade into near total insignificance in comparison.

If we do nothing more than grieve and talk over the next two weeks, we will have failed the victims of the next tragedy.  If we pass reasonable gun control legislation, we’ll have done more.  But if we have failed to confront what is actually behind the Columbines, Virginia Techs, and the Sandy Hooks and declined to put our best efforts into correcting it, we’ll once again look back with pain and regret at what might not have been.

God bless us, every one, that we’ll have the courage to do whatever needs to be done.

Election 2012: Morning After Thoughts on the National Election

Has the Republican Party lost its way?  Did it get beaten so badly because of Tea Party craziness?  Or was it, yet again, too moderate?  Did it get beat because it’s party of angry old white men?  What lessons should the GOP take away from this drubbing?

Here are some of my brief thoughts.

(1) This was not that much of a drubbing.  It was predicted to be a close election.  It was a close election.  The country remains evenly split.  Republicans and Democrats should both keep that in mind.  Enough of the American electorate responded to President Obama’s primary message, which was, “better me than him,” for him to win.  Certainly not a mandate for four more years of the same.

(2) Candidates, candidates, candidates!  Right now, the GOP has a problem with its candidates, and I’m not talking Mitt Romney.  Democrats picked up seats in the Senate due to some incredibly inept Republican candidates, not a Democratic groundswell.  Whatever the reasons — whether it’s Tea Party extremism or the party getting too comfortable with certain seats, I’m not sure.  But the GOP has lost too many races that it should have won over the last 4 years.

(3) Despite the close election, Republicans do have a serious issue with minority appeal and demographic realities.  As a result, I suspect we’ll finally see bipartisan immigration reform before 2014.  However, Republicans have lost ground on the issue that’s going to be hard to make up.  They really need to do some serious outreach.  There are Hispanic voters that would fit well in the GOP, but it’s going to take time, words, and action to make them feel comfortable enough to join up or come back.

(4) Republicans need to make peace with the idea of serious healthcare reform.  Obamacare isn’t going away; there will be no repeal.  It was ultimately a losing wedge issue this time round, it will be more so in future years.  The other thing about the Republican stand on healthcare is that it hurts the party’s minority appeal.  The issue going forward becomes how to mitigate the negative impacts, of which there will be many. The GOP needs a serious alternative healthcare approach.  Now!

(5) The GOP foreign policy does sound like the 1980s part II.  Although I don’t believe for a second that Mitt Romney really conceived of Russia as the United States’ primary foreign policy threat, the GOP needs a foreign policy that is more than Israel, Iraq, + military spending.

Before my fellow Republicans despair that we’re entering a new era of Democratic dominance and all is lost, let’s keep in mind one thing: The Democrats have their own problems.  Pretty big problems.  In his effort to win this election, President Obama repeatedly villainized wealth and openly engaged in the type of class warfare we haven’t seen since before Reagan.  I think some damage was done to the Democratic Party as a result.  President Obama and Congressional Democrats have some time to try and rehabilitate their image.  An improving economy will help.  The significance of the Democratic “firewall” of rust belt swing states is also subject to coming demographic realities.  Continued unconditional support for unions is going to hurt elsewhere and the political benefits will be reduced as the rust belt becomes less electorally significant.  Democrats cannot continue to offer, as their only solutions for an obvious entitlement crisis (1) reduced military spending, and (2) more entitlement programs.  Both parties need course corrections.

Finally, let me wax philosophical on a couple things.  First, the Tea Party.  My few regular readers will know that I’m no great fan of the Tea Party.  But for me, the problem with the Tea Party has always been about the penchant for constitutional politics, not the stances on the major issues of our time, which are debt and entitlement reform.  The Tea Party energy is a positive thing for the Republican Party; it just needs to be re-directed to where it counts.

Second, Mitt Romney.  I was a Jon Huntsman supporter during the primary.  I still like Huntsman.  But I like Romney as well, and I’ve always thought he would be a tremendous President.  I think that Romney represented Republicans well.  I think he represented the Mormon Church well.  I think the door is now wide open for a Mormon President — of any political persuasion.  Mitt ran for office with a deck stacked against him in many ways.  Evangelicals were suspicious of his religion.  Republicans were suspicious of his record.  Democrats attacked his wealth.  If he flip-flopped to navigate the minefield, I forgive him.  He did a good job.

Anyway, my random morning after thoughts on the national election.  Utah thoughts coming soon . . . .

The Most Significant News of the Last 24 Hours

What’s the most significant news of the last 24 hours?

President Obama winning the debate?

More moderator shennigans (I love how we’re now all on a first name basis with Jim, Martha, and Candy)?

Binders of women?

The more or less consensus that President Obama’s win is unlikely to “move the needle”?

That fact that both candidates now make no pretense about their dislike for each other?

The Yankees on the brink of elimination?

Nope.

The most important news of the last 24 hours has nothing to do with last night’s debate, but has potential  to impact the election (and, more importantly, the next 4 years).

It’s the news that housing starts increased 15 percent to a 4-year high.

Recessions (both because of and in spite of politicians’ best efforts) don’t last forever.  And the uptick in housing starts, when coupled with the less-positive (but still positive) employment news from last month, are both good signs — green shoots, shall we say (and as a more confident and less-chastened President might have said in early 2010)?

No question there’s still plenty of bad news and big problems out there.  But each successive piece of positive news subtly alters the narrative of the race, from one where Romney runs against Obama’s record and Obama runs against Romney’s wealth (c’mon liberal friends, admit that this is precisely what he’s doing) to one where Romney’s attack has to be moderated a bit and Obama can cautiously trot out a piece of actual news now and again.

Naive as I am, I’m not naive enough to believe that many people are paying attention to the housing starts news.  And, frankly, the election narrative is probably too well-entrenched to change much, if at all.  But in an election where only a handful of voters matter, pieces of news like this could have some significance, especially, if say, a favorable jobs reports comes out the first week of November . . . .

And if the economy is beginning to cycle out of this recession, the next President stands to get some credit, whether he deserves it or not.  As it was put (somewhat facetiously) on Twitter this morning:

If housing is accelerating, whoever wins may soon be presiding over a real recovery. No wonder the candidates are getting testy …
@davidfrum
davidfrum

Who wouldn’t want to be the guy presiding over a recovery, right?

In case you were wondering, none of this changes my vote.  President Obama’s record is what it is at this point.  I’m more than a bit skeptical of attributing improvements in the housing market to a stimulus bill passed nearly 4 years ago now, and I’ve set out my opinions generally here.

But it’s significant news, certainly more significant that binders of women.

Foreign Policy and Election 2012

One thing that becomes clear when reading the Constitution and the minutes from the Constitutional Convention is that our Founding Fathers didn’t really know what to make of the American President.

Article II generally speaks in vague terms about the President, unless it’s referring to primarily procedural matters outlining the method of election, length of term, oath of office, criteria for impeachment, and obligation to provide Congress information regarding the state of the union.

Even by the standards of our intentionally sparse Constitution, there’s not much to go on when it comes to the President’s substantive authority.  Indeed, in comparison, the authority of Congress is spelled out in great detail.  The President?  He has “the executive Power,” is the Commander in Chief, can grant pardons, make treaties, appoint ambassadors, and must faithfully execute the law.

But as vague as Article II is, it makes one thing clear: the President has a substantial role to play when it comes to the foreign affairs of the United States.  Indeed, one of the primary embarassments of the Articles of Confederation was the utter inability of the United States to prosecute a coherent foreign policy.  Everything that Congress did (or tried to do) was subject to the whims of individual states, and, as a result, the “United States” (when they could negotiate treaties) weren’t able to fulfill their obligations.

And so the Founders, with all their intentional vagueness about the President made clear that he would *the guy* (even if not the sole guy) when it came to foreign affairs.

And the area when individual Presidents have most clearly impacted the history and development of the United States (things domestically are usually much more fuzzy when it comes to attributing responsibility) is in foreign policy.

But Presidential elections don’t often turn on questions of foreign policy, even if they should.

And this election doesn’t appear to be an exception to the rule.  Despite all the obfuscation and intentional vagueness, the domestic policy positions of President Obama and Mitt Romney are relatively well-defined.

Not so when it comes to foreign affairs.

With President Obama, we know a few things: (1) he killed Osama bin Laden, (2) he pulled American forces out of Iraq, (3) he put more troops in Afghanistan, (4) he favors greater diplomatic engagement, (5) his administration panicked about the recent terrorist attack in Libiya and latched onto a storyline that just wasn’t credible, (6) the whole thing about the NDAA, and (7) he will pull American forces out of Afghanistan by 2014.  We don’t know much about what he’d do when push comes to shove with a nuclear Iran.

But with Mitt Romney we know almost nothing.  And, while this is a relatively common complaint from Democrats when it comes all aspects of the Romney/Ryan ticket, the vagueness about foreign policy is the only vagueness concerns me a bit.  When it comes to the economy, when it comes to healthcare reform, when it comes to balancing budgets and bipartisanship, Mitt Romney has a strong record of accomplishment.

But when it comes to foreign affairs, he stands where President Obama did four years ago (minus one anti-Iraq War vote — which was all that candidate Obama had to recommend him).

Romney’s tried to differentiate himself from the President when it comes to military spending, on free trade, talking tough with China, on Israel, and on the Benghazi debacle.  And in advance of the upcoming foreign policy debate, he gave a speech that didn’t say much, striking a different tone instead of drawing many significant substantive contrasts.

My opinion is that the reason we haven’t heard much about the details of a Romney/Ryan foreign policy is because it would likely mimic much of what President Obama has done and has promised to do.  Foreign policy, like everything else, suffers in an intensely political climate (witness both campaigns’ dismal responses to Benghazi:  Mitt with a press conference to condemn the President, with the President, in a moment of political panic, starts peddling an unbelievable story and then persists in the error long after it’s utterly discredited), and I think Romney’s not saying much because the President has done a much better job when it comes to foreign affairs than he has to the United States’ domestic challenges.  And, frankly, it’s difficult to give details about complex international issues when the precise contours are still developing.

But still, the area where the President can most clearly affect the immediate direction of the United States is foreign policy, and I’d like to see both candidates pressed and provide some details (to the extent they can).  It’s probably too much to expect them in the upcoming debates, but anytime prior to November 6 is good enough for me.

It’s Got to be All About Romney’s Lies, Right?

It’s all about the lies.

A week ago, Mitt Romney was toast.  Journalists were writing articles about The Mitt Romney That Could Have Been, before he was corrupted by political ambition and the Tea Party.  Kind-hearted Democrats were telling their like-minded friends to take it easy on the Republicans — after all, they’ve had a rough time.

Well, the political winds have shifted a bit.  Romney’s got momentum, and President Obama’s on the defensive, with nothing likely to change the narrative until the next debate (though we’ve been surprised before, haven’t we?).

And to hear Democrats talk, it’s all because Mitt Romney and his willingness to lie.

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Yet Another Republican Supporting Ben McAdams for Salt Lake County Mayor

I’m a Republican, and I support Ben McAdams for Salt Lake County Mayor (OK, I know that’s a worn out line these days).

I only rarely vote for Democrats.  I am, after all, a Republican for a reason.  But for someone like Ben McAdams, I make an exception.

My first introduction to McAdams came because of his opposition to H.B. 477, the Utah legislature’s misguided effort at reforming GRAMA, Utah’s freedom of information law.  McAdams was one of a relative few legislators (nearly all Democrats, unfortunately) who opposed the bill — and did so eloquently and effectively.

I was impressed.  I liked what I heard and started to watch him more closely.

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