Some Random Political Quick Hits

Too tired to offer up any real substantive content this morning.  So, instead, you get something akin to my own cynical version of Political Cornflakes. :)

John Swallow’s getting away with it.

Wake up Utah GOP.  This guy’s not leaving of his own accord.  You wait for the official results of investigations at your peril.  I hope you’re all still quietly working behind the scenes and haven’t just decided to let the guy finish out his term and lose at convention.  Because that would just be sad.

Caucus system and Mike Lee.

Paul Rolly put out an article today on how Mike Lee is the compelling reason to change Utah’s candidate nominating system.  I’m far from a raving fan of either one.  As to my views on the caucus system, just ask Dan Burton at PubliusOnline — we’ve gone the rounds on this one more than once.  Mike Lee?  Well, he’s been in office almost 3 years now, and what’s he done?  Come on, think of something . . . I dare you.

I’d like to replace Mike Lee.  And I’d like to change the caucus system.  But it’s never a good idea to change a system in response to an electoral result.  In 2012, Tea Partiers learned, much to their distress, that they were not the only ones with power to game the caucus system.  Whatever changes we make to the ways candidates are chosen in Utah should be about voter participation and engagement, not about results.

Tired of the crazy legislature meme.

Our legislature is conservative.  Really conservative.  But count me as one who’s getting tired of hearing that they’re all “bat-s***” crazy.  In fact, if you put aside the constitutional carry bill (HB76, or whatever the number was), this year’s legislature was pretty darn moderate . . . especially by recent standards.  Over and over I hear Utah’s liberals trotting out example after example of legislation that went nowhere as proof of how nutso our representatives are.  Sorry, I just don’t see it right now.  I’ve been as willing as anyone to call out what I see as silly in our elected representatives.  And I haven’t seen much of it lately.  While there’s more I’d like to see them do, of course, our current legislators are, on the whole, doing a fine job.

Obamacare.

Well, we’re coming down to it now.  Or are we?  Will it be fully implemented in 2014?  And what will it do?  Aside from turning the USA into Russia/fulfilling the promises of liberty and justice for all nobody really seems to know.  Though we are all positive that Obamacare will “eliminate pre-existing conditions” . . . which is political-speak for “prevent insurance companies from denying coverage based on pre-existing conditions.”

I think there will be a lot of buyers remorse on Obamacare, which, from what we can tell, seems to be terribly designed and shabbily implemented.  Unfortunately, the GOP has yet to articulate an alternative vision, so it appears we’ll twist in the wind for a time before beginning the debate over full national health.  Ughh.

At least the Obamacare preparation consultants will have their moment in the sun prolonged . . . .

Supreme Court.

There’s lots of cool, important stuff going on up there right now.  And very little intelligent commentary about it.  More to come.  Whether what comes is intelligent or not, well, that’s obviously up to you to decide.

Today’s GOP: Finding Its Way Outside the Echo Chamber

These days, the favorite pastime of commentators right and left is psychoanalyzing the troubles of the Republican Party.  There’s lot being written out there, and, as you might expect some of it is good, while a lot of it is bad (incidentally, I find the mix to be about 15/85 or so…).

Yesterday I read what I think is a particularly insightful piece on what I believe may be the root of the GOP’s political problems, penned by former Representative Joe Scarborough and titled  Tearing Down the Conservative Echo Chamber.  Here’s an excerpt:

After Chuck Todd concluded that Republicans are afraid to leave the safe confines of conservative media outlets, I explained that such a response was short-sighted. After all, it was the Conservative Entertainment Complex that led Republican thought leaders, grass-roots activists and even the presidential candidate himself into believing that a GOP victory was imminent on Election Day. The Romney team was isolated so deep inside this conservative media bubble that they continued to believe victory was theirs well into the evening.

That embarrassing political tale proved that conservatives had finally become what they had once mocked: an insular movement so lost in its own echo chamber that it rarely made contact with those who didn’t share their world view. This is, of course, the same trap that liberals fell into in Manhattan newsrooms and on college campuses throughout the 1960s and 70s during the rise of Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan and the Silent Majority. And yes, there was a silent majority that liberal newspapers and TV anchors were blind to for the better part of a generation.

. . .

Why is Rush Limbaugh batting one for six in presidential races? Why is Fox News one for five? Perhaps it is because two decades later, what many of us once considered to be an important balance to left-wing media bias have become the only outlets conservative politicians and thought leaders consider legitimate. That has proven to be a terrible calculation.

This assumption has now become so widespread on the right that any news analysis or media poll that runs counter to Republican interests is dismissed by the right as biased and irrelevant. This mindset took firm hold in 2012 so that the echo chamber syndrome that once made fools of left has now come back to undermine the right. Not only does this approach distort political reality by only reinforcing pre-existing worldviews, it also stifles intellectual debate inside the party. This in turn creates the kind of stale political environment that has been criticized of late by conservative thought leaders like Bill Kristol, John Podhoretz and Pete Wehner. Mr. Wehner wrote a column today in “Commentary” calling for the “intellectual unfreezing” of the right.

The GOP talks to itself too much, and therefore ends up confusing means and principles and taking all of its ideas too seriously.  Within the party, you have the national level equivalent of a dominant party state primary, where candidates struggle to outdo each other in consistency to principle.  And so, as I’ve written elsewhere, every little political fight is converted into a must-win battle to the death over fundamental principles.  The Grand Old Party is ossifying, becoming inflexible and unwilling (seemingly almost unable) to creatively apply its principles to changing conditions and political realities.

And the casualties?

Diversity of thought and viewpoint.  Creativity and solutions.  Hard-headed, realistic thinking (the very thing Republicans have always prided themselves on).  Expansion of appeal.  And, ultimately, elections and influence.

Today, we have a Republican Party that seems trapped by the very principles underlying its extraordinarily important contributions to government over the last 150 years.  It single mindedly pursues a romantic version of its own ideal, at almost all consequences.  In a way, the GOP has become it’s own version of the emotional bleeding hearts it derides among Democrats.  Instead of healthcare and welfare, it’s no taxes, absolute freedom from regulation and gun rights.  The party of clear-eyed realists has become the party of emotional originalists — so emotionally committed to an inflexible variant of realism that it’s ability to act in all but the most favorable circumstances is paralyzed.

The good in the GOP is still there.  It’s message of limited government is just as important as it has always been, if not more so.

I’m a Republican because I believe in the GOP’s core message of the importance and practical reality of limited government and financial responsibility.  I believe it is a message suited for the most pressing challenges facing today’s America.  We need to GOP to break out of its echo chamber, take a clear assessment of our situation and its political realities, and get back to being the GOP again:

As much as at any time in recent history, America needs a strong, vibrant party on the right to speak for the civilizing ideal of limited government. Barack Obama has put in place an agenda of unreconstructed progressivism that is at war, not only with Reaganism, but also with Clintonism. He has exacerbated a massive fiscal imbalance, added a poorly designed entitlement that further destabilizes the health sector, and sounded an uncertain trumpet of global leadership. If Republicans urgently need to recalibrate, and they do, it is because the stakes are so high.

Among some party loyalists, there is a natural tendency to maintain that the GOP is simply suffering from a “communications problem,” that if only Republicans spoke more loudly, more insistently, and with greater purity and passion, they would broaden their appeal and proceed to sweep national elections. But that counsel, appealing as it might be to a shrinking segment of the electorate, is surely not adequate to present circumstances. More is needed than pumping up the volume.

Intellectual honesty is the first requirement of self-renewal. Republican problems are not superficial or transient.

For the GOP to revivify itself and enlarge its appeal, Republicans at every level will have to think creatively even as they remain within the boundaries of their core principles.

John Swallow . . . Quietly Still There . . .

It’s been over a month now since the Salt Lake Tribune broke the story about John Swallow and Jeremy Johnson.

In the interim we’ve seen more news — all of it bad — including today’s most recent headline: “Swallow suggested cash in exchange for protection, sources say.”  And don’t forget when we learned earlier this week that Mr. Swallow’s own boss (whether motivated by legacy preservation or other concerns) reported Swallow to the FBI (prior to the election, mind you — and then continued to campaign for him to the bitter end).

There have been media demands for resignation and talk about FBI Investigations, ethics reform, and even some whispers about impeachment . . . and yet there John Swallow quietly sits, huddled in the Attorney General’s office, sending out politically hackish emails (e.g., “Fighting for Traditional Families”), crossing his fingers while anxiously awaiting the outcome of an investigation over illegality.  One may be reasonably certain that Mr. Swallow will (likely through a spokesman) indignantly claim vindication if the investigation ends in anything other than a decision to bring charges.

There are still a few voices out there counseling for us to “wait for the facts to come out,” because, after all, this whole thing may be shoddy political takedown manufactured by Jeremy Johnson or those liberals at the Salt Lake Tribune.

That’s not surprising in politics and not too concerning since they’re really not making much noise.

More surprising and concerning than Swallow’s few, quiet defenders, is the utter absence of noise from our elected officials and the public at large.  Our representatives appear to be whispering in the background, waiting for the smoking gun that will allow them to step out from behind the curtain and demand resignation.  They’re being careful — and such cautious care is often, after all, the successful politician’s stock in trade (and not a quality to be scoffed at).

But, right now, these folks are John Swallow’s best friends.

There is being prudently cautious and there is refusing to act because you want to be bailed out.  It appears to me that we have the latter here in Utah when it comes to Mr. Swallow.

We know all we need to know about John Swallow’s lack of judgment and utter lack of credibility to serve as Utah’s chief law enforcement officer.  Right now the only thing that is being gained by continuing to wait and whisper is an increased likelihood that Mr. Swallow, despite having lost all public confidence as this state’s top law enforcement officer, will finish his term in office.

Because let me tell you how I think this ends, if people wait to act until after the conclusion of the federal investigation.  There’s a good chance that the investigation ends with a decision not to bring charges (whether out of a conviction that there was no technical violation or law or just out of a lack of evidence), thus doing nothing more than confirming what we already know — Mr. Swallow has questionable ethics or extraordinarily poor judgment.  At that point, Mr. Swallow claims victory, and I see it highly unlikely that he is impeached after being “cleared” or that political will to force a resignation will suddenly materialize in the aftermath of a “favorable” result.

That would be a tragedy — a stain on the state of Utah and the good work done by our Attorney General’s Office.  And therein lies the danger of continuing to wait, hoping for the smoking gun of illegal conduct (which many will argue we already have).

John Swallow’s hoping this is just how things play out, so that he can finish his term, maybe get a signature “win,” and emerge with favorable record that will make everyone forget all about his messy past.

Because Mr. Swallow is firmly convinced (or at least thinks it’s a good bet) that we’re all just fine with a few shenanigans so long as the federal government doesn’t arrest him on national TV, criminals continue to get convicted, and we fight the good fight at the Supreme Court.

Thus far, Mr. Swallow has been immune to public pressure, confident in the fact that he won’t be charged and people will forget all about this as soon as the Tribune runs out of stories to print.

Seems to me like we need to ratchet up the pressure . . . .

Some TMI-Type Thoughts on Obamacare and the Last Chance

I used to run a lot.  And I used to be fast.  No, really, I was!

I still run when the weather’s decent, and I’m not slow . . . but let’s just say I’m definitely in decline.

And I can pinpoint the moment my decline started.  It was 8 years ago, and I was a 27 year old graduate student at the University of Iowa sitting amidst a pile of paperwork on the floor finishing some research for school (the floor is often my preferred place to conduct research, to the consternation of my wife) when I decided to quickly stand up.  I did, awkwardly, and felt my right knee pop.

I’ve never quite been the same.  Though I’ve continued to run and do other things, I can’t go as far as often or with the reckless abandon I used to.

It’s all part of getting old, I suppose.  I just never expected it would happen so suddenly.  Sigh . . . .

But, turning back to the task at hand (aren’t you wondering what that is!) . . . this last week I reaggravated my old knee injury, and it’s the worst it’s ever been.  It’s difficult to walk on it.  With rest, ice , and Ibuprofen I’m sure things will improve, but I think I’ll probably need surgery before I can return to much (if any) serious physical activity.

There’s just one problem — I’m uninsured.  Have been for the last 2 years.

My family’s uninsured.  Has been for the last 2 years.

In April 2011, I voluntarily left a good paying job at a Salt Lake City law firm that treated me well to strike out on my own in the middle of a recession.  I didn’t have a single client.  I didn’t have health insurance.  I had no idea what I was doing when it came to marketing or running a business (two years later, I have some vague ideas . . .).  I had some savings and food storage.  I had five young children and an amazing and patient wife.

View it as a leap of faith or abject stupidity.  Personally, I alternate between the two.

Things started out very rough, but have gradually gotten better.  My financial situation is improving — though we’re still struggling month to month and are far away from the point where we can afford health insurance.  Even high deductible plans would place an extraordinary strain on our meager resources.  And HSAs?  Nice idea, but for me right now, ha ha ha ha ha . . . .

We’ve been lucky so far.  We’ve avoided the emergency room and surgery–thanks in no small part to an extraordinary wife who has successfully treated numerous injuries and maladies at home — everything from small magnetic balls stuck far up a child’s nose to numerous severe lacerations and eye trouble —  when I was ready to head to the clinic or hospital.

Believe me, I don’t like walking the no-insurance tightrope.  But it is where I am right now.

I hope it’s not where I am a year from now.  Because in 2014, I — and many others like me — will have to purchase health insurance, like it or not.

It won’t be cheap.

And there are a lot of people who aren’t going to be happy about it.  The predictable result of Obamacare’s forced consumption will be premiums rising at an even greater pace than now, if you can conceive of that.  People will struggle to keep up and won’t be happy.  If my firm continues to do better, I’ll be buying insurance.  If not, I (and many like me) will be forced on to Medicaid or penalized at tax time.

President Obama and the Democrats know this.  And they’re counting on it.  They’ll want to parlay the frustration and discontentment over Obamacare 1.0 into Obamacare 2.0: National Health.  It’s been the plan from the day it became clear that, even in the dark recessionary days of 2009 and 2010, national health was a political non-starter.  The one-step program became a two-step program.

There’s nothing nefarious about it — though I personally don’t particularly like it — it’s normal political strategy motivated by a sincere desire to solve this country’s health insurance problem.

And let me tell you, folks, Obamacare 2.0: National Health is where we’re going unless someone is able to provide an workable, alternative plan for healthcare.  In fact, if no one can provide and stand up for a serious alternative vision — if all we’re left with is the choice between Pre-Obamacare 2009, Obamacare 1.0, and Obamacare 2.0: National Health . . . it should be national health.  Shocking?  Well, it’s true.

But it doesn’t have to be that way.  It’s not the choice we have to make, and it’s not the choice we should be making.

There are other choices out there in need of a champion.

GOP:  I’m talking to you.

You have one last chance to avoid national health.  You’ve already wasted 3 years trying to get rid of Obamacare via lawsuit without having a replacement plan other than “the market.”  Now, the window to avoid national health is 2013-2016, and may not even be that long.

To borrow a phrase from our President:  ”Let me be clear” — If you don’t present a workable (compelling would be nice) alternate vision for healthcare in this country before the next Presidential election . . . hello true socialized medicine.  And don’t it always seem to go, that you don’t know what you’ve got ’til it’s gone??!!

What would a workable alternative vision look like?

First and foremost, it would solve the problem of access created by out of control costs.  It would be comprehensive.  It would include serious tort reform.  It would eliminate insurance company abuse of preexisting conditions.  It might rethink the whole concept of insurance versus prepaid medical care.  But it would deal with rising costs.  It would maintain flexibility.  It might continue to rely heavily on health benefits provided by employers, or it might take a different approach.  But it would prevent skyrocketing costs.  Did I mention that it would be laser-focused on controlling costs?

Because, say it with me folks:  The problem of access is a problem of cost.  The problem of access is a problem of cost.  The problem of . . . .

That’s your challenge, should you choose to accept it.

There are lots of good ideas out there.  Put them together into a workable plan and evangelize!

President Obama’s not the only one who can capitalize on the frustration about to be created by Obamacare 1.0.  You can, too.  And even if we ultimately end up at a variant of national health, the country will be better off for having been given a real choice.

Stop whining, get wonking, and then start selling!

 

Some Thoughts on Moderation in Politics

I self-classify as a moderate conservative, and,  as a result, get derided by people of all political persuasions.

To some Republicans (or Libertarians), I’m an fearful, empire-building statist unwilling to follow my principles to their logical conclusion.  To some Democrats, I’m the fearful casualty of a far-right religious upbringing from which I’ve been unable to break free.

The truth?  Somewhere in the middle, I’m sure — after all, I’m a moderate, right?!! :-D

And that’s not good for whatever political ambitions I may have harbored as a child :)

A track record of occupying the middle ground is often a death sentence for political careers.  At least it certainly seems to be right now.  President Obama appears to have transitioned (whether permanently or not, we’ll see) from uncertain, well-spoken centrist into validated liberal lion, while the GOP is, well, struggling a bit out there on the fringe.

Principles, rather than solutions, are all the vogue.  It’s relatively dark times for us more moderate types, because the moderate doesn’t do well in this environment.

People tend to associate moderates with expediency rather than principles.

But should they?

Is there anything to recommend moderation in politics, aside from its penchant for actually producing political action?  In other words, is moderation all about solutions, or is there something more to it?  Something principle-based perhaps?  Well I certainly think there is, and I’ll take the opportunity to get up on my blogging soapbox and force some thoughts down the throats of you few who are committed to keep reading. :)

I want to distinguish between a couple different types of moderation.

There is a strain of moderation in politics that suggests that compromise, middle-of-the-road solutions are best — not only because they are feasible but because they are superior.  After all, no one is right all the time, and compromise solutions tend to weed out extreme ideas and positions.  If nothing else, a compromise usually results in cautious, incremental movement less likely to have the dire consequences that might be associated with extreme shifts in policy.    It’s potential virtues aside, the key point is that if you subscribe to this type of moderation and the hard work of policymaking becomes quite easy.  Have both sides give up a few things that they want in any debate and you have a solution — not only a solution, but a great solution.  Problem solved.

But while the benefits of “process moderation” (shamelessly stealing that term from a friend, here) may sometimes be proven out in practice, it is, in my view, ultimately lazy moderation; it’s compromise for the sake of compromise stuff.  I’m not a great fan.  Certainly in the context of alternatives it’s often the lesser of evils, and while I occasionally get sucked into this variant, it is not, primarily, what I have come to view as true political moderation.

In fact, as pointed out by yet another friend, someone who self-describes as a political moderate based on their inflexible commitment to the center, may actually be quite immoderate (though this lack of moderation is only rarely exposed).

The second strain of moderation  – the one that I like better — describes more of the moderates that I know.  This type of moderation is associated with a focus on reality and respect for others’ opinions (or at least the political force of their opinions) rather than a passionate commitment to the political center.  This type of political moderate is someone willing to temper their own preferred positions out of a recognition that, in a democratic society, if you don’t temper voluntarily, someone else is quite likely to eventually do the tempering for you — in a way you really may not like.  After all, regression to the mean by way of pendulum swings, and all that . . . .

Let me try and explain with an example or two.

Occasionally, I hear Republicans talk as though the social welfare state emerged out of nowhere, as a government power grab foisted on an unwitting public by nefarious liberal leaders.  Or Democrats talk about liberalization of gun rights or welfare reform like they were a conspiracy hatched by the wacked out far right to oppress minorities and return America to the Wild West.  Most don’t talk this way, but some do . . . and we all may, at one time or another.

But I think that if you let yourself have some historical perspective you’ll see that both of these things are the results of insistence on excesses, (and by excess I mean politically immoderate positions — whether ultimately right or wrong), that eventually provoked a backlash resulting in what you see now.  The excess of the Gilded Age produce social welfare legislation and the New Deal.  Excesses in gun control and the entitlement welfare of the Great Society result in Heller and liberalization of gun rights and the Reagan Revolution.  Or, if you prefer, substitute the word “enable” for the words “produce” and “result” and the previous sentences.  There are plenty of other examples.  To start you thinking, consider the taxes, investment banking regulation, suffrage, immigration, and even the origins of the Constitution and Hamilton versus the Antifederalists.

I could go on, but my thoughts are summed up pretty much as follows:

Immoderation begats immoderation.  Or, phrased in the affirmative, excess begats excess.

In my view, moderates are often people less committed to the center, and more committed to refusing to allow their conception of the perfect to become the ally of their intellectual “enemy.”  They value what they already have as well as what they think they can obtain, and recognize that more than just the perfect can be lost in the quest for perfection.  They understand that not every dispute need not be a titanic struggle between good and evil.

Too often, when it comes to politics, we fall into what I’ve started to call “Lord of the Rings” syndrome (with all due respect — and much is due — to Mr. Tolkien), where every disagreement becomes an epic battle to the death.  While we pick our battles with our children (at least we do when we’re smart) we’re less and less inclined to with our political enemies.  And as a result, we end up fighting way too many Battles of the Backlash.

The Battle of the Backlash is the fight that you provoke by insisting on getting it all, whether all at once, or incrementally . . . .

Sometimes you’ll win, and sometimes you’ll lose the epic struggle.

But be assured that you’ll fight the Battle of the Backlash whenever you insist that everyone join you on your end of the political spectrum, because, dang it, you’re 100 percent right and they’re only willing to admit that your 90 percent right.

And just look at the cost (assuming it’s even possible) of recovering what you may have lost once it’s gone!

In politics every small struggle has connections to, and overtones of, a battles over fundamental principles.  But they don’t (or shouldn’t) always end in the same place.  In my opinion, the more often you fight small struggles battles as though they were epic battles, the less effective you’re going to be when a really fundamental dispute comes along.

Now, lest you think that I haven’t considered the other side, I’ll acknowledge that the dangers of moderation are as evident as its benefits.  You can certainly fall into the trap of believing that nothing is worth really fighting for and compromise yourself to moral relativism.  You can start getting a skewed view of the political landscape when you start seeing everything through the lens of moderation — i.e., they lost because they were too extreme; they won because they were reasonable.

I’m not suggesting that my view of moderation is the perfect lens through which to view the world and evaluate political outcomes.  I’m not suggesting it’s necessarily the philosophy for all seasons.  But it’s something I think about quite a bit, and I believe it’s worth thinking about the next time you’re gearing up for political battle.  At the very least, it’s something you should consider the next time you’re tempted to deride those squishy moderates. :)

I’d love your thoughts!

On Transformations and Transformative Leaders

It’s cliche and makes me cringe a little bit to write, but I’ll write it anyway:  Our country is at a crossroads.

In the 80 years since the onset of the Great Depression, America has built, in fits and starts, a moderate social welfare state and limited international empire that appears to be on the verge of collapse due to a combination of bad fiscal habits, demographic realities, and rising international competition.  We’re approaching a moment when America is going to be forced to take a very fundamental change in direction.  We’re in an obviously unsustainable place, and, yet, while they talk about it for hours on end, none of our esteemed leaders seems to be really able to admit it.  I mean really admit it, much less act on the admission.

I feel like America needs to join an international twelve-step meeting.  Hi, I’m America, and I’m addicted to having it all . . . .

The historically dominant western countries, built on the twin principles of democracy and social welfare, seems to be reaching their limits, practically and intellectually.  Rather than believing we’ve reached the “End of History,” as one famously phrased it, I tend to think we’re on the cusp of change that will be quite fundamental.

What will it be?  I don’t know, exactly.  While I have my own fuzzy ideas about what it should be, of course, that’s a post for another time.

But I sense that it’s coming, and that we’ll need a transformational leader to help America successfully navigate it with our own fundamental principles still intact.

In many ways, President Barack Obama is a remarkable man.

His public speaking is first rate.  His intelligence is impressive.  His personal conduct is beyond reproach; he’s a model husband and father.  In the last year he has shown a remarkable ability to learn and adapt from past failures — for evidence, just look compare his rather dismal performance in July 2012 to a very astute political performance during December 2012 (of course, winning an election in the interim helps . . . but still).

But despite all the talk about transformation, hope, and change that accompanied his election in 2008, President Obama hasn’t been, and won’t be, the type of transformational leader America needs.

The type of transformative leader we need isn’t someone who will take us into a new Era of Good Feelings.  As much as we are all frustrated with the partisanship and political ridiculousness, more cooperation isn’t necessarily the cure for what ails America.

The type of transformative leader we need isn’t someone who will take us into the next stage of the entitlement state.  We’ve seen where that leads.

We need someone willing to take us in a new direction.

I don’t know that I see anyone out there right now who fits the bill.

But the history of America teaches us that looks can be deceiving.

After all, who would have guessed that timid, uncertain Abraham “I have no intention of interfering with slavery where it now exists” Lincoln would be the one who launched America into the Civil War and accompanying transformation.  Or that mild-mannered Harry “Failed Haberdasher” Truman would be the one to end WWII by dropping the atom bomb on Japan and commence the Cold War with containment in Berlin and Korea?  Or that a B-list Hollywood actor would bring down the USSR after Eisenhower, Kennedy, and Nixon had each failed?

You get the picture.  The person we need may not look like the person we need at all.

Peering into the future, especially in uncertain times, leaves us looking through a glass darkly.  While we can sense approaching change, we can’t see clearly what seems so inevitable in hindsight.

But while things are still fuzzy as far as the future is concerned, what we can look for in our leaders is a commitment to doing what needs to be done to position America for the future.  Don’t see much of that out there right now.  Anywhere.

And that should concern us quite a bit.

Because something’s coming, due any day, and we need to be ready, soon as it shows . . . .

What Does the John Swallow Debacle Say About Utah?

Since the Salt Lake Tribune broke the story about John Swallow’s troubling connections to disgraced philanthropist Jeremy Johnson last Saturday, calls for Swallow’s resignation have trickled in.  Over the last 24 hours, that trickle has become more of a flood.  It seems like everyone agrees that Swallow’s got to go.

I commented after my initial post that I didn’t think this would take him down, unless it got more messy (which it has).  Well, now we’ve got other federal investigative targets associated with Swallow and a deathbed affidavit that appears to have been prepared in a panic and has done nothing but make the scandal worse.  The whole thing stinks of an amateur hour attempt at Chicago-style pay to play politics.

I’m revising my opinion.  Swallow’s done.  The sooner he realizes it the better for all concerned.  There are plenty of attorneys in Utah (and within the AG’s office) who would do a fine job as Attorney General.  Let’s get one of them in and move forward.

But while we should all be happy that we’re about to be rid of John Swallow (provided we keep the pressure on), we should also be quite concerned.

Utahns — and especially our state delegates — really need to ask themselves . . . how in the world did this guy get elected?  Because it’s not as if any of this should have taken us by surprise.

Daniel Burton of PubliusOnline, put up an excellent post this morning summarizing John Swallow’s political career in headlines — none of which were positive.  The only news the average Utahn had about John Swallow was about sketchy campaign tactics, a history of inappropriate lobbying procedures, and exaggeration regarding his legal abilities.

The information was front and center for everyone to see.

And plenty of people saw it, believe me.

Most of my Republican political associates saw it.  My attorney friends saw it.  In fact, every attorney I know opposed John Swallow for AG — regardless of whether they supported Dee Smith (the Democratic candidate) or Sean Reyes (the primary opponent).  Folks, it was really almost that universal among the man’s peers!

I opposed him repeatedly.  So did many, many others I know.  Swallow’s primary opponent, Sean Reyes, raised concerns in an official complaint (which was covered in the press) and got ridiculed for playing dirty — oh the irony!

But maybe we didn’t speak up loud enough, because the man nearly skated through convention as the GOP choice without a primary in a system that’s designed to be an equalizer for qualified candidates without money or name recognition.

Maybe people just don’t care about the race for attorney general when they’ve got a Presidential election and race for U.S. Senator.

But regardless of whether the position of Attorney General is as politically sexy as Governor or Senator, a man with John Swallow’s track record should not have gotten elected.  It’s a black eye for the state and undermines the good work done by the attorneys at the AG’s office — even the good work (and I’m sure there was some) done by Swallow himself as a Deputy AG.

I know many of liberal friends are talking this week about dominant party democracy and LDS political hegemony.

But I think we all just need to talk about law enforcement, ethics in politics, and out state’s very troubling refusal to engage with these issues on any adequate basis.  Because, people, if we (and I’m speaking broadly here) can’t even do our homework on a guy with issues as obvious as John Swallow’s, then situations like this are going to be the predictable end result.

What does this debacle say about Utah?  It says we’re too complacent when it comes to demanding transparency and upright conduct in our political leaders . . . even though we talk about it an awful lot.

We need to do two things.

First, we have a legislative session coming up, and we need to demand action from our legislature to put in place safeguards designed to reduce the likelihood that this happens again.  Second, and more importantly, we need to hold ourselves and our our neighborhood representatives accountable.  If you had a state delegate who voted for John Swallow you need to ask them why, and if you can’t get a satisfactory answer, well, then, you know what to do . . . .

Lets keep on this one.

 

 

Brief Thoughts on John Swallow, the Tribune Article, and the Attorney General

Robert Gehrke, Utah’s best political reporter (IMHO), broke a story this morning that will have Utah politicos talking and arguing for a while:  Indicted Businessman Ties Swallow to Alleged Scheme.

The story contains allegations from indicted Utah businessman/philanthropist Jeremy Johnson that John Swallow, recently elected as Attorney General, worked with Johnson to help him try to bribe Harry Reid (through a third-party lobbying firm) in an attempt to stop an FTC investigation into Johnson’s business interests.

As you work your way through the article, the names of Utah’s legal-political elite appear everywhere, and no one comes away unscathed — with the exception, perhaps, of Dee Smith, the Democratic Candidate for Attorney General, who appears to have been brought (at least partially) up to speed on this in the days before the election and, despite obvious political self-interest, showed remarkable restraint by uttering nary a word (at least publicly).

The article reads a bit like a tragic comedy, with the characters working frantically on what seems to be an entirely quixotic effort to stall an FTC investigation by influencing a United States Senator who likely didn’t know that most these individuals existed until the Tribune’s story was published this morning.  The players come off as inept and naive, sincerely uncertain about just what it is that they’re doing, or have done, and its legal consequences.

People who follow this blog, or follow me on Twitter or Facebook, know that I actively (well, as actively as a blogger does) opposed John Swallow for Attorney General.  My concern was never about his character as much as his legal competency.  From my — admittedly very limited — interactions with him, he seemed much as he comes off in this article, as a nice, sincere person in over his head — whether with his claim to be “running” the Obamacare lawsuit despite having only the most rudimentary understanding of the legal principles involved or his sloppiness in continuing to lobby on behalf of friends while a Deputy Attorney General.

There may be additional facts that will cast the story in a different light.  We can assuredly expect attempts at character rehabilitation from all the main players, which will muddy the waters further before things start to become more clear.

All this will work itself out in time.

But there is one thing that I think is clear right now:  Utahns need to take more seriously the post of Attorney General and our responsibility to elect this state’s chief law enforcement officer.

John Roberts and Election 2012

Fiscal cliff . . . blah, blah, blah . . . dysfunctional government . . . blah, blah, blah.

I know it’s important.

But I just can’t bring myself to talk about it, other than to say that the posturing is idiotic and that it is more obvious than ever that everyone who is “serious” about solving [INSERT PET CRISIS HERE] is apparently only serious about doing it on their own terms, which is an approach that always works well.

Blah, blah, blah . . .

Oops, even I slipped into it there for a second — sorry!  You don’t really want to here any more about that, right?

OK . . . how about I talk about Chief Justice John Roberts instead?

I am, after all, a lawyer.  Sigh . . . .

I saw the following headline this morning that got me thinking:  John Roberts is the Person of the Year.

If the approaching new year has you looking about for “most influential” types, then look no further than the Chief Justice, a lawyer’s lawyer, who, intentionally or unintentionally, almost certainly had more influence on Election 2012 then all the millions of dollars in hounds-of-hell SuperPACs he unleashed on the unwitting public via Citizens United (which, interestingly, I haven’t heard a peep about since early November . . .).

While people were awaiting the Court’s decision on Obamacare, both sides were a bit ambivalent on the political consequences.  After all, if conservatives lost at the Supreme Court, they could run against both an unpopular law and activist judges.  As for President Obama, if he lost he could run against both the wealthy and an antiquated, out-of-touch, white male judiciary (+ Clarence Thomas).

In fact, the best political outcome for both sides was probably a loss, right?  Right??!!  Just look at the expanded list of villains!!

Ha ha.

All that ambivalence was just a bunch of posturing.

The reality was that both sides really wanted an Obamacare win.  And President Obama really needed an Obamacare win.

If you can remember all the way back to late June this year, you’ll remember that it wasn’t a great time for the President.  The economy wasn’t doing well . . . for the fourth summer in a row . . . and there were few signs of improvement.  There was the debt ceiling debacle.  His image as a pragmatic compromiser was being, well, compromised.  His list of accomplishments — despressingly short already given (probably unfair, but largely self-inflicted) expectations — was posed to grow even shorter.  Although liberals were still sanguine about the election, Republicans were licking their chops, sure that the President’s signature domestic policy accomplishment was about to be dismantled by the Supreme Court.  ”Just what has he done the last four years?,” they would say.  ”Passed an ineffective stimulus bill and an unconstitutional healthcare law?”  ”Saved Solyndra and wasted all his time trying — unsuccessfully, thanks to us — to subvert the Constitution by undermining the quality of your healthcare?”

And what would President Obama’s response have been?  ”Well, when it comes to jobs, we’re *almost* back to where we started?”  ”Blame it all on the Wall Street, Congressional Republicans, and the Supreme Court?”  Ouch.  Though we might all have been saved some of the rhetoric about birth control . . . or not.

Would the election have turned out differently?  I don’t pretend to know.  But even if the result was the same, the election surely would have been different.  And I think there is a decent chance that things would have turned out differently.

Maybe that’s all wishful thinking. :)

But I struggle to think of anyone else as politically influential in 2012 than our Chief Justice.

In his own version of the Switch in Time that Saved Nine, John Roberts fundamentally changed the anticipated direction of the electoral conversation and, I think, had more influence on Election 2012 than anyone else.

I don’t think John Roberts is an activist judge (if that phrase has any meaning at all).  I don’t think he aspires to be a political power player.  I think he’s pretty much the ultimate lawyer’s lawyer.

In fact, I’ve been pretty open about the fact that I think our Chief Justice’s Obamacare decision was motivated primarily by a desire to keep the Supreme Court out of politics rather than to inject it into the middle of another Presidential election — whether you think that’s a legitimate judicial consideration or not.

But that’s the long-game, and sometimes you have to take some short term hits to get where you ultimately want to be.

So, whether he wanted it or not, John Roberts has my vote for most politically influential of 2012.

Now that he’s no longer kept in suspense, he can get back to scheming over how to incense half the country over affirmative action.

And with that, I return you to the fiscal cliff . . . .

Sandy Hook.

I’ve been MIA since the election for a number of reasons, but primarily because work has demanded enough of my time that blogging has to take a back seat.  It’s also been a nice break.

But I, like all of us, was jolted out of my life’s busy holiday reverie by what happened in Newtown on Friday morning.

The tragedy for the parents who lost children, and children who lost mothers, is unspeakable.  For me, anyway, their pain is unimaginable.  Any attempt to comprehend what they must be feeling makes me physically exhausted, terrified, and emotionally wrung out.  The senselessness of it all — the cold-blooded murder of Kindergarten children by someone scarcely older than a child himself — makes it an event that simply can’t be understood.

Like 9/11 and Columbine — the two tragedies with which it most closely compares — the effects of Sandy Hook will reverberate down the years in the form of a shattered sense of security for our us as parents and each of our little ones and, hopefully, the actions taken to try and prevent this from ever happening again.

Already, a great national conversation has begun over gun control, as it always does during these times.  While this is a good thing, it’s not the main thing.

What we’re all talking about is not really the conversation we need to be having.

Rather than asking ourselves about access to guns, we need to be asking ourselves why this keeps happening in America, and, almost, only in America?  And why does the level of violence seem to be escalating?

And these are not, primarily, questions about access to guns.  They are questions about our national soul.

It is the prevalence of bullying?  Is it mental illness?  Is it lack of access to adequate healthcare?  Is it a culture of violence and celebrity?  Some combination of all of the above?  Or something else entirely?

I don’t pretend to know what it is.  But these are the pressing concerns.  These are the real questions we need to answer.  And we need to answer them now — before this happens again.  Because the Columbines, Virginia Techs, and the Sandy Hooks seem perilously close to becoming a self-fulfilling prophesy.

Tragedies like Sandy Hook should never happen.

And though we can never guarantee that this will never happen again, we can, and must, guarantee that we will put our very best efforts to heal the wounds in our national soul.  Questions about spending, debt ceilings, energy independence, climate change, and progressive taxation fade into near total insignificance in comparison.

If we do nothing more than grieve and talk over the next two weeks, we will have failed the victims of the next tragedy.  If we pass reasonable gun control legislation, we’ll have done more.  But if we have failed to confront what is actually behind the Columbines, Virginia Techs, and the Sandy Hooks and declined to put our best efforts into correcting it, we’ll once again look back with pain and regret at what might not have been.

God bless us, every one, that we’ll have the courage to do whatever needs to be done.